Charlton 1–0 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Charlton

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Birmingham

C. Kelman 74'

3/7/2026

Championship · Round 36The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Charlton39%

×Draw28%

Birmingham33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Charlton

1.23

Birmingham

1.10

Charlton creates 12% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

1.10

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Charlton

1.10

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Charlton

1.27

Birmingham

1.35

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Charlton-0.10scores less

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

67%

Charlton or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

61%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Birmingham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

71%

Charlton 2+ goals

35%

Charlton 3+ goals

13%

Birmingham 1+ goals

67%

Birmingham 2+ goals

30%

Birmingham 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

54%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 20 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.10 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Charlton defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Charlton scores more

39%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

33%

Charlton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Jones

Charlton · D

8.5

Match Events

17'

August Priske

57'

J. Stansfield← A. Priske

57'

I. Osman← D. Gray

71'

C. Kelman← L. Chambers

71'

J. Rankin-Costello← G. Docherty

74'

C. Kelman

81'

M. Leaburn← L. Dykes

81'

P. Roberts← C. Vicente

81'

E. Laird← J. E. Solis Romero

86'

K. Fujimoto← J. Panzo

90+1'

M. Gillesphey← T. Campbell

90+1'

C. Coady← C. Coventry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonBirmingham

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots7

0.76Expected Goals (xG)0.35

3Corners3

6Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

4On Target1

3Off Target3

5Blocked3

9Inside Box1

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

325Total Passes442

232Accurate Passes326

71%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.59Goals Prevented0.59

Discipline

6Fouls14

0Yellow Cards1

6Offsides1