Birmingham 1–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

C. Klarer 28'

T. Campbell 67'

12/13/2025

Championship · Round 21St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Birmingham52%

×Draw25%

Charlton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.94

Birmingham

1.58

Charlton

0.94

Birmingham creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.62

creates per match

0.89

0.99

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Charlton

0.89

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Charlton

1.55

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Charlton-0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

78%

Birmingham or Charlton

75%

Draw or Charlton

48%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

27%

Charlton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

79%

Birmingham 2+ goals

47%

Birmingham 3+ goals

21%

Charlton 1+ goals

61%

Charlton 2+ goals

24%

Charlton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

70%

Charlton (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Charlton away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.55 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Charlton defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Charlton attack 0.89 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Birmingham scores more

52%

level

25%

Charlton scores more

22%

Birmingham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Klarer

Birmingham · D

8.3

Match Events

28'

C. Klarer↳ T. Doyle

56'

Ryan Allsop

56'

Isaac Olaofe

60'

K. Anderson← P. Roberts

60'

L. Dykes← M. Ducksch

64'

Alex Cochrane

65'

J. Rankin-Costello← C. Coventry

65'

T. Campbell← I. Fullah

67'

T. Campbell

75'

G. Docherty← S. Carey

78'

Phil Neumann

80'

Karoy Anderson

82'

K. Furuhashi← P. Neumann

87'

L. Koumas← J. Stansfield

88'

J. Laqeretabua← T. Olaofe

88'

H. Knibbs← K. Anderson

89'

Harvey Knibbs

90+6'

Joe Rankin-Costello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamCharlton

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots7

1.24Expected Goals (xG)1.12

10Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots7

5On Target1

9Off Target3

10Blocked3

9Inside Box7

15Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

479Total Passes298

390Accurate Passes211

81%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2