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Emelec vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2026

Emelec
Emelec
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
6/3/2017Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 17Estadio Banco del Pacífico (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Emelec64%
×Draw22%
Fuerza Amarilla14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Emelec
1.86
Fuerza Amarilla
0.73

Emelec creates 155% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 28 away

creates per match

Emelec
1.47
Fuerza Amarilla
0.64

allows per match

Emelec
0.81
Fuerza Amarilla
2.25

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Emelec or draw
86%
Emelec or Fuerza Amarilla
78%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
36%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+
38%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals
84%
Emelec 2+ goals
55%
Emelec 3+ goals
28%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
52%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
17%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)
82%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.81 · 134 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.86

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.64 + Emelec defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Emelec scores more
64%
level
22%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
14%

Emelec at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Liga Pro: Emelec 1–0 Fuerza Amarilla

Emelec beat Fuerza Amarilla 1-0 in Liga Pro on June 3, 2017.

The match was played at Estadio Banco del Pacífico (Guayaquil).