Emelec 1–2 Fuerza Amarilla: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fuerza Amarilla

2/17/2019

Liga Pro · Round 2Estadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Emelec69%

×Draw19%

Fuerza Amarilla12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchFuerza Amarilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.71

Emelec

2.07

Fuerza Amarilla

0.71

Emelec creates 192% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 15 away

1.47

creates per match

0.60

0.83

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Emelec

1.47

Fuerza Amarilla

0.60

allows per match

Emelec

0.83

Fuerza Amarilla

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

88%

Emelec or Fuerza Amarilla

81%

Draw or Fuerza Amarilla

31%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

44%

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

87%

Emelec 2+ goals

61%

Emelec 3+ goals

34%

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

51%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

16%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

85%

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 1.47 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.07

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Emelec scores more

69%

level

19%

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

12%

Emelec at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff