Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Chongqing Lifan

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Chongqing Lifan

Mao Jianqing 58'

Cao Yunding 17'

Alan Kardec 43'

Peng Xinli 7'

6/17/2017

Super League · Round 13Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua52%

×Draw23%

Chongqing Lifan25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchChongqing Lifan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.24

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Chongqing Lifan

1.24

Shanghai Shenhua creates 50% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 52 away

1.85

creates per match

1.25

1.23

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

Chongqing Lifan

1.25

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Chongqing Lifan

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Chongqing Lifan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

75%

Shanghai Shenhua or Chongqing Lifan

77%

Draw or Chongqing Lifan

48%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

29%

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

84%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

55%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

28%

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

71%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

35%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

67%

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.25 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

52%

level

23%

Chongqing Lifan scores more

25%

Shanghai Shenhua at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Alan Kardec

Chongqing Lifan · F

8.1

Match Events

7'

Peng Xinli↳ Alan Kardec

11'

Jianrong Zhu

17'

Cao Yunding↳ C. Tevez

19'

Woo-Young Jung

43'

Alan Kardec↳ Nan Song

46'

Mao Jianqing← Zhu Jianrong

46'

Lü Zheng← Liu Ruofan

58'

Mao Jianqing↳ Cao Yunding

67'

Xu Yang← Wu Qing

79'

Xiaofei Deng

80'

Cui Yongzhe← Nan Song

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiChongqing

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots16

7Corners5

10Fouls15

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target4

9Off Target9

0Blocked3

10Inside Box8

5Outside Box8

Passing

59%Possession41%

410Total Passes289

320Accurate Passes202

78%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0