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Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira — League #301 2026

Sharjah FC
Sharjah FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Al-Jazira
Al-Jazira
Mohamed Al Shehhi 29'
Coronado 9' (pen), 5' (pen)
Fares Juma 53'
Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi 13'
3/29/2019League #301League #301 · Round 18Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sharjah FC36%
×Draw24%
Al-Jazira40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sharjah FC
1.50
Al-Jazira
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sharjah FC
1.50
Al-Jazira
1.95

allows per match

Sharjah FC
1.20
Al-Jazira
1.50

finishing

Sharjah FC+0.00on par
Al-Jazira+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sharjah FC ↓

Al-Jazira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sharjah FC or draw
60%
Sharjah FC or Al-Jazira
76%
Draw or Al-Jazira
64%

Winning margin

Sharjah FC wins by 2+
17%
Al-Jazira wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sharjah FC 1+ goals
78%
Sharjah FC 2+ goals
44%
Sharjah FC 3+ goals
19%
Al-Jazira 1+ goals
79%
Al-Jazira 2+ goals
46%
Al-Jazira 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sharjah FC (draw refunded)
48%
Al-Jazira (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sharjah FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Al-Jazira away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sharjah FC attack 1.50 + Al-Jazira defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al-Jazira attack 1.95 + Sharjah FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sharjah FC scores more
36%
level
24%
Al-Jazira scores more
40%

Al-Jazira at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Jazira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Ali Khasif
5'
CoronadoPenalty
9'
CoronadoPenalty
13'
Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi↳ Zayed Al Ameri
28'
Saif Rashid
29'
Mohamed Al Shehhi
53'
Fares Juma↳ Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi
74'
Mohamad Omar Al Attas← Zayed Al Ameri
79'
Fares Juma
87'
Sébastien Siani
90'
Ryan Mendes
90'
Hamad Jasim← Saif Rashid Nasir

Possession

40%Sharjah

Shots

9Sharjah

Statistics

SharjahAl-Jazira
Overview
40%Possession60%
9Total Shots14
6Corners13
13Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots14
7On Target9
2Off Target5
Passing
40%Possession60%
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira

Sharjah FC beat Al-Jazira 3-2 in League #301 on March 29, 2019.

Goals: Coronado (5' pen, 9' pen), Khalfan Mubarak Al Shamsi (13'), Mohamed Al Shehhi (29'), Fares Juma (53').

Al-Jazira controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Sharjah.