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Chanthaburi vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Chanthaburi
Chanthaburi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
9/29/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 7Chanthaburi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Chanthaburi42%
×Draw26%
Ayutthaya FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chanthaburi
1.42
Ayutthaya FC
1.18

Chanthaburi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 101 away

creates per match

Chanthaburi
1.47
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Chanthaburi
1.10
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Chanthaburi+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chanthaburi ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Chanthaburi or draw
69%
Chanthaburi or Ayutthaya FC
74%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
58%

Winning margin

Chanthaburi wins by 2+
20%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chanthaburi 1+ goals
76%
Chanthaburi 2+ goals
41%
Chanthaburi 3+ goals
17%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
69%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
33%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)
58%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chanthaburi at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chanthaburi attack 1.47 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Chanthaburi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chanthaburi scores more
42%
level
26%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
31%

Chanthaburi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Chanthaburi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chanthaburi vs Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Chanthaburi 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Chanthaburi Stadium in Chanthaburi.