Ayutthaya FC 1–3 Chanthaburi: Result & Stats

Ayutthaya FC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Chanthaburi

8/26/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 3Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ayutthaya FC47%

×Draw25%

Chanthaburi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayutthaya FCExpected goals in this matchChanthaburi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Ayutthaya FC

1.58

Chanthaburi

1.17

Ayutthaya FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 50 away

1.54

creates per match

1.08

1.26

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.54

Chanthaburi

1.08

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC

1.26

Chanthaburi

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Chanthaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Chanthaburi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw

72%

Ayutthaya FC or Chanthaburi

75%

Draw or Chanthaburi

53%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

24%

Chanthaburi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

79%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

47%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

21%

Chanthaburi 1+ goals

69%

Chanthaburi 2+ goals

33%

Chanthaburi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

62%

Chanthaburi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Chanthaburi away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Chanthaburi defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Chanthaburi attack 1.08 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Chanthaburi scores more

28%

Ayutthaya FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff