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Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
3/18/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Changchun Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Changchun Yatai53%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.71
Beijing Renhe
1.06

Changchun Yatai creates 61% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
76%
Changchun Yatai or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
47%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
29%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
82%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
51%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
24%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
65%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
29%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
69%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.71

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
53%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
24%

Changchun Yatai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Changchun Yatai 1–1 Beijing Renhe

Changchun Yatai and Beijing Renhe drew 1-1 in Super League on March 18, 2018.

The match was played at Changchun Sports Center in Changchun.