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Beijing Renhe vs Changchun Yatai — Super League 2018

Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
8/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe38%
×Draw24%
Changchun Yatai38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Renhe
1.53
Changchun Yatai
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 88 away

creates per match

Beijing Renhe
1.17
Changchun Yatai
1.30

allows per match

Beijing Renhe
1.73
Changchun Yatai
1.90

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw
62%
Beijing Renhe or Changchun Yatai
76%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
62%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
18%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
78%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
45%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
20%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
78%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
45%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
50%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.53

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more
38%
level
24%
Changchun Yatai scores more
38%

Beijing Renhe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beijing Renhe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Renhe vs Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Beijing Renhe 3-1 in Super League on August 15, 2018.

The match was played at Fengtai Sports Center in Beijing.