Changchun Yatai 0–4 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Changchun Yatai

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Beijing Guoan

F. Abreu 82', 45' (pen)

Zhang Yuning 77'

Serginho 19'

11/1/2025

Super League · Round 29Development Area Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Changchun Yatai34%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changchun YataiExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.57

Changchun Yatai

1.40

Beijing Guoan

1.57

Beijing Guoan creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.32

creates per match

1.56

1.58

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Changchun Yatai

1.32

Beijing Guoan

1.56

allows per match

Changchun Yatai

1.58

Beijing Guoan

1.48

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

Changchun Yatai-0.01on par

Beijing Guoan+0.35scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw

58%

Changchun Yatai or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

66%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

15%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

75%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

41%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

17%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

79%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

46%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

45%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 13 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.32 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Beijing Guoan attack 1.56 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more

34%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

42%

Beijing Guoan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Abreu

Beijing Guoan · F

9.6

Match Events

11'

12'

19'

27'

34'

Liyu YangGoal cancelled

40'

Xinli Peng

45+9'

Fabio AbreuPenalty confirmed

45'

F. AbreuPenalty

46'

Zhang Huachen← S. Sunzu

46'

Tan Long← A. Asqer

46'

Bai Yang← Jiang Wenhao

46'

Guga← Chi Zhongguo

64'

Li Lei← He Yupeng

64'

Zhang Yuning← Serginho

68'

Yuning ZhangGoal cancelled

73'

Z. Xuan← Xu Haofeng

74'

Liu Guobao← W. Cyprien

77'

Zhang Yuning↳ F. Abreu

78'

Zhou Junchen← O. Omoijuanfo

79'

Zhang Xizhe← Yang Liyu

82'

F. Abreu

84'

Michael Ngadeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChangchunBeijing

Overview

47%Possession53%

19Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)2.25

9Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

19Total Shots10

7On Target6

5Off Target3

7Blocked1

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

47%Possession53%

326Total Passes378

260Accurate Passes290

80%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2