Changchun Yatai 1–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Changchun Yatai

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Beijing Guoan

P. Žulj 34'

Fábio Abreu 13'

9/22/2023

Super League · Round 26Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Changchun Yatai33%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Changchun YataiExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.63

Changchun Yatai

1.42

Beijing Guoan

1.63

Beijing Guoan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

1.36

creates per match

1.55

1.70

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Changchun Yatai

1.36

Beijing Guoan

1.55

allows per match

Changchun Yatai

1.70

Beijing Guoan

1.48

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Changchun Yatai-0.09on par

Beijing Guoan+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw

57%

Changchun Yatai or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

67%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

15%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

76%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

41%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

17%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

80%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

48%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

44%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.70 · 15 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.36 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.42

Beijing Guoan attack 1.55 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more

33%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

43%

Beijing Guoan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Serginho

Changchun Yatai · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

Zhang Yufeng

13'

Fábio Abreu↳ Yang Liyu

17'

Teng Yi

34'

P. Žulj↳ Serginho

47'

Gang Wang

56'

Yuan Mincheng← Yi Teng

64'

Liu Yun← Zhang Yufeng

64'

Yan Yu← Kang Sang-Woo

76'

Yu Dabao← Chi Zhongguo

77'

Naibijiang Mohemati← Yang Liyu

78'

Sabit Abdusalam← Cheng Changcheng

78'

Abduhamit Abdugheni← Yan Zhiyu

89'

Wang Ziming← Zhang Xizhe

90+2'

Mincheng Yuan

90+9'

Nebijan Muhmet

90'

Fabio Abreu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChangchunBeijing

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots7

1.63Expected Goals (xG)1.28

4Corners9

14Fouls21

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target4

6Off Target1

2Blocked2

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

291Total Passes314

211Accurate Passes228

73%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan

Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan drew 1-1 in Super League on September 22, 2023.

Goals: Fábio Abreu (13'), P. Žulj (34').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.

Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan