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Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
4/28/2019League OneLeague One · Round 7Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Changchun Yatai48%
×Draw25%
Beijing Baxy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.56
Beijing Baxy
1.10

Changchun Yatai creates 42% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 71 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.55
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.14
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
73%
Changchun Yatai or Beijing Baxy
75%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
52%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
25%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
79%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
46%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
21%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
67%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
30%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
64%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 29 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.55 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
48%
level
25%
Beijing Baxy scores more
27%

Changchun Yatai at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Changchun Yatai 1–4 Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Changchun Yatai 4-1 in League One on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.