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Beijing Baxy vs Changchun Yatai — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
8/17/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Beijing Baxy34%
×Draw25%
Changchun Yatai41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.35
Changchun Yatai
1.52

Changchun Yatai creates 13% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 29 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Changchun Yatai
1.90

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Changchun Yatai
1.31

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Changchun Yatai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
59%
Beijing Baxy or Changchun Yatai
75%
Draw or Changchun Yatai
66%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
15%
Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
74%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
39%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
15%
Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
78%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
45%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
45%
Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Changchun Yatai attack 1.90 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
34%
level
25%
Changchun Yatai scores more
41%

Changchun Yatai at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Baxy vs Changchun Yatai

Changchun Yatai beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in League One on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Beijing.