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Chadormalu SC vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Chadormalu SC
Chadormalu SC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
2/27/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Nasiri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Chadormalu SC40%
×Draw32%
Ario Eslamshahr28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chadormalu SC
1.06
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

Chadormalu SC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 51 away

creates per match

Chadormalu SC
1.29
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Chadormalu SC
0.90
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chadormalu SC ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Chadormalu SC or draw
72%
Chadormalu SC or Ario Eslamshahr
68%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
60%

Winning margin

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+
16%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals
65%
Chadormalu SC 2+ goals
29%
Chadormalu SC 3+ goals
9%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
57%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
21%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)
59%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chadormalu SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chadormalu SC attack 1.29 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chadormalu SC scores more
40%
level
32%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
28%

Chadormalu SC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chadormalu SC vs Ario Eslamshahr

Chadormalu SC and Ario Eslamshahr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on February 27, 2024.

The match was played at Nasiri Stadium in Yazd.