Ario Eslamshahr 1–2 Chadormalu SC: Result & Stats

Ario Eslamshahr

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Chadormalu SC

9/25/2023

Azadegan League · Round 4Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ario Eslamshahr29%

×Draw37%

Chadormalu SC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ario EslamshahrExpected goals in this matchChadormalu SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.70

0.78

Ario Eslamshahr

0.70

Chadormalu SC

0.78

Chadormalu SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 31 away

0.78

creates per match

1.16

0.41

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.78

Chadormalu SC

1.16

allows per match

Ario Eslamshahr

0.41

Chadormalu SC

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Chadormalu SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under81
Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ario Eslamshahr ↓

Chadormalu SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–023%

0–118%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–14%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

77%23%1.5

44%56%2.5

19%81%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Ario Eslamshahr or draw

66%

Ario Eslamshahr or Chadormalu SC

63%

Draw or Chadormalu SC

71%

Winning margin

Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+

8%

Chadormalu SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals

50%

Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals

16%

Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals

3%

Chadormalu SC 1+ goals

54%

Chadormalu SC 2+ goals

18%

Chadormalu SC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)

46%

Chadormalu SC (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ario Eslamshahr at home — creates 0.78, concedes 0.41 · 51 matches

Chadormalu SC away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Chadormalu SC defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.70

Chadormalu SC attack 1.16 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Ario Eslamshahr scores more

29%

level

37%

Chadormalu SC scores more

34%

Chadormalu SC at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Chadormalu SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff