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Chacaritas vs Vargas Torres — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vargas Torres
Vargas Torres
6/21/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 15Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chacaritas45%
×Draw29%
Vargas Torres26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.27
Vargas Torres
0.89

Chacaritas creates 43% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 52 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.25
Vargas Torres
0.60

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.18
Vargas Torres
1.29

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
Vargas Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Vargas Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
74%
Chacaritas or Vargas Torres
71%
Draw or Vargas Torres
55%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
21%
Vargas Torres wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
72%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
36%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
14%
Vargas Torres 1+ goals
59%
Vargas Torres 2+ goals
22%
Vargas Torres 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
63%
Vargas Torres (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.18 · 97 matches

Vargas Torres away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.25 + Vargas Torres defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Vargas Torres attack 0.60 + Chacaritas defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chacaritas scores more
45%
level
29%
Vargas Torres scores more
26%

Chacaritas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chacaritas vs Vargas Torres

Chacaritas beat Vargas Torres 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on June 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.