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Chacaritas vs 22 de Julio — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
22 de Julio
22 de Julio
L. Angulo 20' (OG)
10/8/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Relegation Round - 7Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Chacaritas54%
×Draw24%
22 de Julio22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
1.76
22 de Julio
1.04

Chacaritas creates 69% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.17
22 de Julio
0.57

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.52
22 de Julio
2.35

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
22 de Julio+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

22 de Julio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
78%
Chacaritas or 22 de Julio
76%
Draw or 22 de Julio
46%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
30%
22 de Julio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
83%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
52%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
26%
22 de Julio 1+ goals
65%
22 de Julio 2+ goals
28%
22 de Julio 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
71%
22 de Julio (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

22 de Julio away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.17 + 22 de Julio defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.76

22 de Julio attack 0.57 + Chacaritas defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chacaritas scores more
54%
level
24%
22 de Julio scores more
22%

Chacaritas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chacaritas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. AnguloOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Chacaritas 0–1 22 de Julio

22 de Julio beat Chacaritas 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 8, 2025.

Goals: L. Angulo (20' o.g.).

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo in Pelileo.