22 de Julio 3–0 Chacaritas: Result & Stats

22 de Julio

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chacaritas

B. Pena 79'

J. Paredes 71' (pen)

S. Ortiz 64'

7/22/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 19Estadio Folke Anderson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

22 de Julio60%

×Draw26%

Chacaritas14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

22 de JulioExpected goals in this matchChacaritas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.58

22 de Julio

1.52

Chacaritas

0.58

22 de Julio creates 162% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

0.88

creates per match

0.57

0.60

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

22 de Julio

0.88

Chacaritas

0.57

allows per match

22 de Julio

0.60

Chacaritas

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

22 de Julio+0.00on par

Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

22 de Julio ↓

Chacaritas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

22 de Julio or draw

86%

22 de Julio or Chacaritas

74%

Draw or Chacaritas

40%

Winning margin

22 de Julio wins by 2+

32%

Chacaritas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

22 de Julio 1+ goals

78%

22 de Julio 2+ goals

45%

22 de Julio 3+ goals

20%

Chacaritas 1+ goals

44%

Chacaritas 2+ goals

12%

Chacaritas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

22 de Julio (draw refunded)

81%

Chacaritas (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

22 de Julio at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.60 · 25 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

22 de Julio attack 0.88 + Chacaritas defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Chacaritas attack 0.57 + 22 de Julio defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

22 de Julio scores more

60%

level

26%

Chacaritas scores more

14%

22 de Julio at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "22 de Julio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

S. Ortiz

71'

J. ParedesPenalty

78'

79'

B. Pena

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff