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Chacarita Juniors vs CA Estudiantes — Primera Nacional 2026

Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
CA Estudiantes
CA Estudiantes
3/29/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 7Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Chacarita Juniors38%
×Draw31%
CA Estudiantes31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacarita Juniors
1.06
CA Estudiantes
0.94

Chacarita Juniors creates 13% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 118 away

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.12
CA Estudiantes
0.81

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.06
CA Estudiantes
1.01

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par
CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

CA Estudiantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw
69%
Chacarita Juniors or CA Estudiantes
69%
Draw or CA Estudiantes
62%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
15%
CA Estudiantes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
65%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
29%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
9%
CA Estudiantes 1+ goals
61%
CA Estudiantes 2+ goals
24%
CA Estudiantes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
55%
CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.01 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more
38%
level
31%
CA Estudiantes scores more
31%

Chacarita Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chacarita Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Chacarita Juniors 0–3 CA Estudiantes

CA Estudiantes beat Chacarita Juniors 3-0 in Primera Nacional on March 29, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors in Buenos Aires.