Chacarita Juniors 1–1 CA Estudiantes

Chacarita Juniors

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CA Estudiantes

7/27/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 25Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Chacarita Juniors38%

×Draw31%

CA Estudiantes31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chacarita JuniorsExpected goals in this matchCA Estudiantes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.94

Chacarita Juniors

1.06

CA Estudiantes

0.94

Chacarita Juniors creates 13% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 118 away

1.12

creates per match

0.81

1.06

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.12

CA Estudiantes

0.81

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors

1.06

CA Estudiantes

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

CA Estudiantes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

CA Estudiantes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw

69%

Chacarita Juniors or CA Estudiantes

69%

Draw or CA Estudiantes

62%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+

15%

CA Estudiantes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals

65%

Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals

29%

Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals

9%

CA Estudiantes 1+ goals

61%

CA Estudiantes 2+ goals

24%

CA Estudiantes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)

55%

CA Estudiantes (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

CA Estudiantes away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.01 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + CA Estudiantes defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

CA Estudiantes attack 0.81 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more

38%

level

31%

CA Estudiantes scores more

31%

Chacarita Juniors at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chacarita Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff