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Chacarita Juniors vs Boca Unidos — Primera Nacional 2026

Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
3/6/2015Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 4Estadio Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Chacarita Juniors29%
×Draw27%
Boca Unidos44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacarita Juniors
1.06
Boca Unidos
1.38

Boca Unidos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 3 away

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.11
Boca Unidos
1.67

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.08
Boca Unidos
1.00

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par
Boca Unidos+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

Boca Unidos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw
56%
Chacarita Juniors or Boca Unidos
73%
Draw or Boca Unidos
71%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
11%
Boca Unidos wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
65%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
29%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
9%
Boca Unidos 1+ goals
75%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
40%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
40%
Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.08 · 126 matches

Boca Unidos away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.11 + Boca Unidos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Boca Unidos attack 1.67 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more
29%
level
27%
Boca Unidos scores more
44%

Boca Unidos at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Chacarita Juniors 2–1 Boca Unidos

Chacarita Juniors beat Boca Unidos 2-1 in Primera Nacional on March 6, 2015.

The match was played at Estadio Chacarita Juniors in General San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.