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Boca Unidos vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
7/17/2015Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Estadio José Antonio Romero Feris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Boca Unidos57%
×Draw27%
Chacarita Juniors16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Unidos
1.44
Chacarita Juniors
0.62

Boca Unidos creates 132% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 125 away

creates per match

Boca Unidos
1.67
Chacarita Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Boca Unidos
0.33
Chacarita Juniors
1.21

finishing

Boca Unidos+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Unidos ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Boca Unidos or draw
84%
Boca Unidos or Chacarita Juniors
73%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
43%

Winning margin

Boca Unidos wins by 2+
29%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Boca Unidos 1+ goals
76%
Boca Unidos 2+ goals
42%
Boca Unidos 3+ goals
18%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
46%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
13%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Boca Unidos (draw refunded)
78%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Unidos at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.21 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Unidos attack 1.67 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.91 + Boca Unidos defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Boca Unidos scores more
57%
level
27%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
16%

Boca Unidos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Boca Unidos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Boca Unidos 4–1 Chacarita Juniors

Boca Unidos beat Chacarita Juniors 4-1 in Primera Nacional on July 17, 2015.

The match was played at Estadio José Antonio Romero Feris in Corrientes, Provincia de Corrientes.