CFRJ / Maricá 2–2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ: Result & Stats

CFRJ / Maricá

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Victor Pereira 75'

Pablo Thomaz 10'

Ewerton Potiguar 70'

Lucas Marreta 15'

4/18/2026

Serie D · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CFRJ / Maricá48%

×Draw29%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFRJ / MaricáExpected goals in this matchSampaio Corrêa RJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.79

CFRJ / Maricá

1.29

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

0.79

CFRJ / Maricá creates 63% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.08

creates per match

0.50

1.08

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

CFRJ / Maricá

1.08

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

0.50

allows per match

CFRJ / Maricá

1.08

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFRJ / Maricá+0.00on par

Sampaio Corrêa RJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFRJ / Maricá ↓

Sampaio Corrêa RJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

CFRJ / Maricá or draw

77%

CFRJ / Maricá or Sampaio Corrêa RJ

71%

Draw or Sampaio Corrêa RJ

52%

Winning margin

CFRJ / Maricá wins by 2+

22%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CFRJ / Maricá 1+ goals

72%

CFRJ / Maricá 2+ goals

37%

CFRJ / Maricá 3+ goals

14%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1+ goals

55%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2+ goals

19%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CFRJ / Maricá (draw refunded)

68%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFRJ / Maricá at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sampaio Corrêa RJ away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFRJ / Maricá attack 1.08 + Sampaio Corrêa RJ defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sampaio Corrêa RJ attack 0.50 + CFRJ / Maricá defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CFRJ / Maricá scores more

48%

level

29%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ scores more

23%

CFRJ / Maricá at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CFRJ / Maricá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

15'

70'

75'

CFRJ

Sampaio

Manager: Marcus Cravo

Manager: Surian Felipe