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CFRJ / Maricá vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ — League #624 2026

CFRJ / Maricá
CFRJ / Maricá
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Matheus Goiano 83'
O. Cruz Manhaes 35'
Luan Gama 34'
Guilherme 16'
2/12/2026League #624League #624 · Relegation Group - 1CT Joao Saldanha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

CFRJ / Maricá11%
×Draw23%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFRJ / Maricá
0.50
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1.67

Sampaio Corrêa RJ creates 234% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

CFRJ / Maricá
0.33
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1.67

allows per match

CFRJ / Maricá
1.67
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0.67

finishing

CFRJ / Maricá+0.00on par
Sampaio Corrêa RJ+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFRJ / Maricá ↓

Sampaio Corrêa RJ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–119%
0–216%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CFRJ / Maricá or draw
34%
CFRJ / Maricá or Sampaio Corrêa RJ
77%
Draw or Sampaio Corrêa RJ
89%

Winning margin

CFRJ / Maricá wins by 2+
2%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

CFRJ / Maricá 1+ goals
39%
CFRJ / Maricá 2+ goals
9%
CFRJ / Maricá 3+ goals
1%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1+ goals
81%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2+ goals
50%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

CFRJ / Maricá (draw refunded)
14%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFRJ / Maricá at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sampaio Corrêa RJ away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFRJ / Maricá attack 0.33 + Sampaio Corrêa RJ defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Sampaio Corrêa RJ attack 1.67 + CFRJ / Maricá defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

CFRJ / Maricá scores more
11%
level
23%
Sampaio Corrêa RJ scores more
66%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sampaio Corrêa RJ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
GuilhermeSampaio Corrêa RJSampaio Corrêa RJ · D
8.6

Match Events

16'
Guilherme↳ Rodrigo Andrade
18'
Sandro
28'
Caio Vitor
34'
Luan Gama↳ Rodrigo Andrade
35'
O. Cruz Manhaes↳ Luan Gama
39'
Octavio Manteca← Caio Vitor
40'
Valdenilson← Rafael Carioca
46'
Rodrigo Dantas← Rodrigo Andrade
46'
Joao Martini← Pablo
54'
Vinicius Matheus← Oliver
69'
Ryan Andrade← Luan Gama
69'
Gregory← Gabriel Agu
73'
L. B. Fernandes← Victor Pereira
73'
Matheus Alessandro← Almir Silva
81'
Matheus Goiano← O. Cruz Manhaes
83'
Matheus Goiano
85'
Matheus Goiano

Possession

52%CFRJ

Shots

13CFRJ

Pass accuracy

51%CFRJ

Statistics

CFRJSampaio
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots8
8Corners2
13Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots8
3On Target6
5Off Target2
5Blocked0
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
370Total Passes365
309Accurate Passes292
84%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: CFRJ / Maricá vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Sampaio Corrêa RJ beat CFRJ / Maricá 4-0 in League #624 on February 12, 2026.

Goals: Guilherme (16'), Luan Gama (34'), O. Cruz Manhaes (35'), Matheus Goiano (83').

CFRJ / Maricá controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at CT Joao Saldanha in Rio de Janeiro.