CFR 1907 Cluj 1–1 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

BSC Young Boys

M. Rondón 62'

C. Fassnacht 69'

10/29/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group A - 2Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj45%

×Draw27%

BSC Young Boys28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.43

BSC Young Boys

1.06

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.36

creates per match

1.21

0.91

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.36

BSC Young Boys

1.21

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

0.91

BSC Young Boys

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

72%

CFR 1907 Cluj or BSC Young Boys

73%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

55%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

22%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

76%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

42%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

17%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

65%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

29%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

62%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.36 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

BSC Young Boys attack 1.21 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

45%

level

27%

BSC Young Boys scores more

28%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

M. Sušić

CFR 1907 Cluj · D

7.7

Match Events

14'

C. Manea← Paulo Vinícius

22'

Gabriel Debeljuh

46'

B. Omrani← G. Debeljuh

62'

63'

63'

63'

69'

74'

74'

T. Siebatcheu← M. Ngamaleu

75'

V. Sierro← M. Aebischer

75'

M. Sulejmani← M. Camara

79'

M. Pereira← A. Păun

79'

C. Itu← O. Hoban

82'

Damjan Đoković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFRBSC

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots13

5Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked4

7Inside Box9

1Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

302Total Passes491

175Accurate Passes370

58%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2