BSC Young Boys 3–1 CFR 1907 Cluj: Result & Stats

BSC Young Boys

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

J. Siebatcheu 42', 23'

M. Ngamaleu 25'

B. Omrani 4'

8/10/2021

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundStadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

BSC Young Boys40%

×Draw23%

CFR 1907 Cluj36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Young BoysExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.58

BSC Young Boys

1.67

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.83

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

BSC Young Boys

2.00

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

allows per match

BSC Young Boys

1.83

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Young Boys ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

BSC Young Boys or draw

64%

BSC Young Boys or CFR 1907 Cluj

77%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

60%

Winning margin

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

20%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

81%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

50%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

79%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

47%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

52%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Young Boys at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Young Boys attack 2.00 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.33 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BSC Young Boys scores more

40%

level

23%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

36%

BSC Young Boys at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

M. Ngamaleu

BSC Young Boys · M

9.2

Match Events

4'

B. Omrani↳ C. Deac

23'

J. Siebatcheu↳ M. Ngamaleu

25'

M. Ngamaleu↳ M. Aebischer

26'

Rúnar Már Sigurjónsson

27'

Michel Aebischer

42'

J. Siebatcheu↳ M. Elia

46'

J. Rodríguez← G. Fofana

46'

D. Alibec← R. Sigurjónsson

56'

56'

63'

63'

66'

67'

F. Rieder← M. Aebischer

77'

V. Costache← B. Omrani

82'

Q. Maceiras← S. Hefti

82'

F. Mambimbi← M. Elia

87'

V. Sierro← C. Martins

88'

W. Kanga← J. Siebatcheu

90+4'

Denis Alibec

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BSCCFR

Overview

69%Possession31%

16Total Shots7

7Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots7

7On Target2

7Off Target4

2Blocked1

10Inside Box2

6Outside Box5

Passing

69%Possession31%

601Total Passes267

514Accurate Passes171

86%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1