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CFC Hertha vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
2/6/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CFC Hertha58%
×Draw22%
BSC Süd 0520%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.93
BSC Süd 05
1.04

CFC Hertha creates 86% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 21 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
80%
CFC Hertha or BSC Süd 05
78%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
42%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
34%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
85%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
57%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
30%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
65%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
28%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
74%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
58%
level
22%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
20%

CFC Hertha at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CFC Hertha vs BSC Süd 05

CFC Hertha beat BSC Süd 05 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße in Berlin.