Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

BSC Süd 05 vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
FT
1 – 4
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
11/1/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 10Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0529%
×Draw24%
CFC Hertha47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSC Süd 05
1.23
CFC Hertha
1.63

CFC Hertha creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 44 away

creates per match

BSC Süd 05
0.85
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

BSC Süd 05
1.95
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw
53%
BSC Süd 05 or CFC Hertha
76%
Draw or CFC Hertha
71%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
12%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
71%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
35%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
13%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
80%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
48%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
38%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.23

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more
29%
level
24%
CFC Hertha scores more
47%

CFC Hertha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: BSC Süd 05 1–4 CFC Hertha

CFC Hertha beat BSC Süd 05 4-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz in Brandenburg an der Have.