CF Pachuca 1–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

L. Quinones 88'

7/26/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Pachuca60%

×Draw22%

Mazatlán18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.95

CF Pachuca

1.94

Mazatlán

0.95

CF Pachuca creates 104% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 19 away

1.72

creates per match

0.79

1.10

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.72

Mazatlán

0.79

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.10

Mazatlán

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

82%

CF Pachuca or Mazatlán

78%

Draw or Mazatlán

40%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

36%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

86%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

58%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

30%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

61%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

25%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

77%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.72 + Mazatlán defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.94

Mazatlán attack 0.79 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

60%

level

22%

Mazatlán scores more

18%

CF Pachuca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

L. Quinones

CF Pachuca · F

7.9

Match Events

35'

Nicolás Benedetti

40'

Eduardo Bauermann

58'

V. Guzman← A. Bautista

58'

L. Quinones← G. Togni

63'

S. Fierro← J. Esquivel

63'

O. F. Moreno Villegas← A. Duarte

74'

J. Lopez← A. Dominguez

74'

B. A. Garcia Caprizo← C. Sanchez

75'

A. A. Saavedra Nevarez← N. Benedetti

75'

Dudu← Fabio Gomes

80'

Angel Saavedra

82'

M. Lainez← D. Hernandez

83'

I. Hernandez← P. Pedraza

88'

L. Quinones↳ V. Guzman

90'

Luis QuiñonesGoal confirmed

90+1'

Sebastian Fierro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFMazatlán

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots2

1.03Expected Goals (xG)0.22

8Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots2

3On Target0

8Off Target1

4Blocked1

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box0

Passing

65%Possession35%

501Total Passes275

444Accurate Passes210

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides7