CF Pachuca 1–1 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

O. Idrissi 67'

F. Almada 83'

4/28/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CF Pachuca57%

×Draw23%

Mazatlán20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.93

CF Pachuca

1.77

Mazatlán

0.93

CF Pachuca creates 90% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

0.81

1.05

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.50

Mazatlán

0.81

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.05

Mazatlán

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

80%

CF Pachuca or Mazatlán

77%

Draw or Mazatlán

43%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

32%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

83%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

53%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

26%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

61%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

24%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

74%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Mazatlán defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mazatlán attack 0.81 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

57%

level

23%

Mazatlán scores more

20%

CF Pachuca at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

196

E. Montiel

CF Pachuca · M

7.9

Match Events

45+1'

Pedro Pedraza

52'

N. Deossa← P. Pedraza

57'

O. Idrissi← A. Domínguez

57'

S. Rondón← S. Aguayo

67'

O. Idrissi↳ N. Deossa

72'

G. del Prete← S. Flores

72'

E. Bello← A. Medina

74'

O. González← R. de la Rosa

74'

É. Sánchez← A. Bautista

78'

A. Escoboza← J. Esquivel

83'

F. Almada↳ J. Colmán

86'

B. Rubio← L. Amarilla

86'

G. Sánchez← J. Colmán

87'

Brian Rubio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFMazatlán

Overview

59%Possession41%

26Total Shots10

6Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

26Total Shots10

6On Target3

11Off Target5

9Blocked2

12Inside Box6

14Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

466Total Passes332

390Accurate Passes228

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1