CF Pachuca 1–1 Mazatlán: Result & Stats | Liga MX

CF Pachuca

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

7/19/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

CF Pachuca56%

×Draw23%

Mazatlán21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.97

CF Pachuca

1.77

Mazatlán

0.97

CF Pachuca creates 82% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 103 away

1.67

creates per match

0.89

1.04

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.67

Mazatlán

0.89

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.04

Mazatlán

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Mazatlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

79%

CF Pachuca or Mazatlán

77%

Draw or Mazatlán

44%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

32%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

83%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

53%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

26%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

62%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

25%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

73%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Mazatlán defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mazatlán attack 0.89 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

56%

level

23%

Mazatlán scores more

21%

CF Pachuca at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff