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CF Pachuca vs Leon — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leon
Leon
8/12/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

CF Pachuca47%
×Draw25%
Leon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.57
Leon
1.16

CF Pachuca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 146 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Leon
1.27

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Leon
1.48

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
72%
CF Pachuca or Leon
75%
Draw or Leon
53%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
24%
Leon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
79%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
46%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
21%
Leon 1+ goals
69%
Leon 2+ goals
32%
Leon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
62%
Leon (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Leon away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.57

Leon attack 1.27 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
47%
level
25%
Leon scores more
28%

CF Pachuca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: CF Pachuca 0–1 Leon

Leon beat CF Pachuca 1-0 in Liga MX on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.