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CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Preview
03:00
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
10/22/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Big match
38%
CF Pachuca
model favours
38%26%36%

Cruz Azul are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

CF Pachuca38%
×Draw26%
Cruz Azul36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.33
Cruz Azul
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.50
Cruz Azul
1.54

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.05
Cruz Azul
1.17

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
64%
CF Pachuca or Cruz Azul
74%
Draw or Cruz Azul
62%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
74%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
38%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
15%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
72%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
37%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
51%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Cruz Azul defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cruz Azul attack 1.54 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
38%
level
26%
Cruz Azul scores more
36%

CF Pachuca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches
  • Cruz Azul score first in only 21% of matches
  • Both teams score in 79% of Cruz Azul’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — CF Pachuca 4 vs Cruz Azul 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
CF Pachuca
Defensively solid
Cruz Azul
Balanced
50%Possession50%
82%Pass accuracy80%
14.7Shots16.5
1.08xGBiggest gap1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CF PachucaCruz Azul

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pachuca
WLWWW
Azul
DWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul — Match Preview

CF Pachuca face Cruz Azul on October 22, 2026 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CF Pachuca host Cruz Azul at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.