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CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
9/30/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CF Pachuca30%
×Draw31%
Cruz Azul40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
0.91
Cruz Azul
1.10

Cruz Azul creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.13
Cruz Azul
1.38

allows per match

CF Pachuca
0.83
Cruz Azul
0.68

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.49scores more
Cruz Azul+0.42scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
60%
CF Pachuca or Cruz Azul
69%
Draw or Cruz Azul
70%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
10%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
60%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
23%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
6%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
67%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
30%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
43%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 13 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.68 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.13 + Cruz Azul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.91

Cruz Azul attack 1.38 + CF Pachuca defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
30%
level
31%
Cruz Azul scores more
40%

Cruz Azul at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

CF Pachuca beat Cruz Azul 3-1 in Liga MX on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.