CF Pachuca 2–1 Atletico San Luis: Result & Stats

CF Pachuca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Atletico San Luis

J. Sanabria 40' (OG)

E. Valencia 35' (pen)

S. Perez 14'

9/27/2025

Liga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

CF Pachuca47%

×Draw24%

Atletico San Luis29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF PachucaExpected goals in this matchAtletico San Luis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

CF Pachuca

1.65

Atletico San Luis

1.23

CF Pachuca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

1.42

1.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

CF Pachuca

1.50

Atletico San Luis

1.42

allows per match

CF Pachuca

1.05

Atletico San Luis

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Atletico San Luis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Atletico San Luis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw

71%

CF Pachuca or Atletico San Luis

76%

Draw or Atletico San Luis

53%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+

25%

Atletico San Luis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals

81%

CF Pachuca 2+ goals

49%

CF Pachuca 3+ goals

23%

Atletico San Luis 1+ goals

71%

Atletico San Luis 2+ goals

35%

Atletico San Luis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico San Luis (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.05 · 42 matches

Atletico San Luis away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.50 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.65

Atletico San Luis attack 1.42 + CF Pachuca defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CF Pachuca scores more

47%

level

24%

Atletico San Luis scores more

29%

CF Pachuca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Valencia

CF Pachuca · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

14'

31'

33'

35'

E. ValenciaPenalty

40'

J. SanabriaOwn goal

46'

V. Guzman← O. Idrissi

46'

I. Luna← P. Pedraza

46'

Yan Phillipe← M. Garcia

60'

A. Cruz← B. Galdames

60'

Rodrigo Dourado← S. Salles-Lamonge

70'

João Pedro Galvão

71'

Víctor GuzmánGoal cancelled

75'

I. Hernandez← E. Valencia

78'

Joao Louranco← S. Perez

80'

G. Togni← Kenedy

86'

M. Klimowicz← R. Torres

87'

J. Berlanga← L. Quinones

88'

Jorge Berlanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFAtletico

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots12

1Corners4

21Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots12

2On Target3

10Off Target4

0Blocked5

4Inside Box6

8Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

363Total Passes429

281Accurate Passes348

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1