Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2021
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
Atletico San Luis44%
CF Pachuca32%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico San Luis creates 20% more chances
Season form · 56 home / 57 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico San Luis ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico San Luis at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches
CF Pachuca away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico San Luis attack 1.71 + CF Pachuca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.63
CF Pachuca attack 1.30 + Atletico San Luis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.36
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Atletico San Luis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Atletico San Luis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Toluca
Club America
Cruz Azul
Tigres UANL
Necaxa
Leon
MonterreyPachuca
FC Juarez
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Guadalajara Chivas
Club Queretaro
Club Tijuana
AtlasAtletico San Luis
Mazatlán
Puebla
Santos LagunaCruz AzulTolucaTigres UANLU.N.A.M. - PumasMonterreyAtletico San LuisClub TijuanaClub AmericaGuadalajara ChivasAtlasLeonFC JuarezNecaxaMazatlánPueblaPachucaClub QueretaroSantos LagunaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico San Luis host CF Pachuca on Monday, 18 March 2024 at 01:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2021/2022 season.
Match Recap: Atletico San Luis vs CF Pachuca
Atletico San Luis beat CF Pachuca 2-1 in Liga MX on March 18, 2024.
Goals: F. Boli (22'), B. Galdames (71'), N. Deossa (74').
CF Pachuca controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez in San Luis Potosí.