CF Montreal 2–1 Cavalry FC: Result & Stats

CF Montreal

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cavalry FC

I. Piatti 49', 32'

S. Camargo 69'

8/7/2019

Canadian Championship · Semi-finalsStade Saputo (Montreal, Quebec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

CF Montreal49%

×Draw26%

Cavalry FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CF MontrealExpected goals in this matchCavalry FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.03

CF Montreal

1.52

Cavalry FC

1.03

CF Montreal creates 48% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.92

creates per match

1.56

0.50

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CF Montreal

1.92

Cavalry FC

1.56

allows per match

CF Montreal

0.50

Cavalry FC

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Cavalry FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Montreal ↓

Cavalry FC →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

CF Montreal or draw

74%

CF Montreal or Cavalry FC

74%

Draw or Cavalry FC

51%

Winning margin

CF Montreal wins by 2+

25%

Cavalry FC wins by 2+

Team goals

CF Montreal 1+ goals

78%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

45%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

20%

Cavalry FC 1+ goals

64%

Cavalry FC 2+ goals

28%

Cavalry FC 3+ goals

Draw no bet

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

65%

Cavalry FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

CF Montreal at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Cavalry FC away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

CF Montreal attack 1.92 + Cavalry FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cavalry FC attack 1.56 + CF Montreal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

CF Montreal scores more

49%

level

26%

Cavalry FC scores more

26%

CF Montreal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

34'

49'

56'

61'

69'

70'

73'

J. Escalante← J. Escalante

74'

O. Okwonkwo

79'

L. Lappalainen← L. Lappalainen

80'

S. Camargo← S. Camargo

Cavalry

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

👔

Manager: R. Garde

70'▲—←▼C. Bayiha

79'▲—←▼L. Lappalainen

CF Montreal substitutes

18Okwonkwo8Taïder15Brault-Guillard23Diop29Choiniere3Lovitz11Jackson-Hamel

👔

Manager: T. Wheeldon

61'▲—←▼J. Brown

73'▲—←▼J. Escalante

80'▲—←▼S. Camargo

Cavalry FC substitutes

23Malonga18Eustaquio7Minatel20Patiño22Giantsopoulos21Hamilton16Adekugbe

Canadian Championship: CF Montreal 2–1 Cavalry FC

CF Montreal beat Cavalry FC 2-1 in Canadian Championship on August 7, 2019.

Goals: I. Piatti (32', 49'), S. Camargo (69').

The match was played at Stade Saputo (Montreal, Quebec).

CF Montreal vs Cavalry FC — Canadian Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Canadian Championship: CF Montreal 2–1 Cavalry FC