Cavalry FC 0–1 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

Cavalry FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CF Montreal

8/15/2019

Canadian Championship · Semi-finalsSpruce Meadows (Calgary, Alberta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Cavalry FC49%

×Draw26%

CF Montreal25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cavalry FCExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.00

Cavalry FC

1.50

CF Montreal

1.00

Cavalry FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

0.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Cavalry FC

1.50

CF Montreal

1.20

allows per match

Cavalry FC

0.80

CF Montreal

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cavalry FC+0.00on par

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalry FC ↓

CF Montreal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cavalry FC or draw

75%

Cavalry FC or CF Montreal

74%

Draw or CF Montreal

51%

Winning margin

Cavalry FC wins by 2+

25%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cavalry FC 1+ goals

78%

Cavalry FC 2+ goals

44%

Cavalry FC 3+ goals

19%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

63%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

26%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cavalry FC (draw refunded)

66%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalry FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalry FC attack 1.50 + CF Montreal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

CF Montreal attack 1.20 + Cavalry FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cavalry FC scores more

49%

level

26%

CF Montreal scores more

25%

Cavalry FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cavalry FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff