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CF Gandía vs Castellonense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

CF Gandía
CF Gandía
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Castellonense
Castellonense
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Estadio Guillermo Olagüe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

CF Gandía40%
×Draw30%
Castellonense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Gandía
1.15
Castellonense
0.95

CF Gandía creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

CF Gandía
1.25
Castellonense
1.12

allows per match

CF Gandía
0.78
Castellonense
1.04

finishing

CF Gandía+0.00on par
Castellonense+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Gandía ↓

Castellonense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CF Gandía or draw
70%
CF Gandía or Castellonense
70%
Draw or Castellonense
60%

Winning margin

CF Gandía wins by 2+
17%
Castellonense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Gandía 1+ goals
68%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
32%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
11%
Castellonense 1+ goals
61%
Castellonense 2+ goals
25%
Castellonense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CF Gandía (draw refunded)
57%
Castellonense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Gandía at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.78 · 32 matches

Castellonense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Gandía attack 1.25 + Castellonense defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.15

Castellonense attack 1.12 + CF Gandía defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

CF Gandía scores more
40%
level
30%
Castellonense scores more
30%

CF Gandía at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CF Gandía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CF Gandía vs Castellonense

CF Gandía beat Castellonense 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Olagüe in Gandía.