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Castellonense vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Castellonense
Castellonense
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
CF Gandía
CF Gandía
4/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 29Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Castellonense45%
×Draw27%
CF Gandía29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castellonense
1.41
CF Gandía
1.07

Castellonense creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

creates per match

Castellonense
1.47
CF Gandía
1.13

allows per match

Castellonense
1.02
CF Gandía
1.34

finishing

Castellonense+0.00on par
CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellonense ↓

CF Gandía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Castellonense or draw
71%
Castellonense or CF Gandía
73%
Draw or CF Gandía
55%

Winning margin

Castellonense wins by 2+
21%
CF Gandía wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Castellonense 1+ goals
76%
Castellonense 2+ goals
41%
Castellonense 3+ goals
17%
CF Gandía 1+ goals
66%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
29%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Castellonense (draw refunded)
61%
CF Gandía (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellonense at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellonense attack 1.47 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Castellonense defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castellonense scores more
45%
level
27%
CF Gandía scores more
29%

Castellonense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castellonense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castellonense vs CF Gandía

Castellonense and CF Gandía drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet in Castelló.