Cetinje 2–0 Berane: Result & Stats | Second League

Cetinje

FT

2 – 0

Berane

10/13/2021

Second League · Round 10Stadion Lugovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cetinje29%

×Draw25%

Berane46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CetinjeExpected goals in this matchBerane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.57

Cetinje

1.18

Berane

1.57

Berane creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 89 away

0.89

creates per match

0.98

2.17

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Cetinje

0.89

Berane

0.98

allows per match

Cetinje

2.17

Berane

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cetinje+0.00on par

Berane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cetinje ↓

Berane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cetinje or draw

54%

Cetinje or Berane

75%

Draw or Berane

71%

Winning margin

Cetinje wins by 2+

12%

Berane wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Cetinje 1+ goals

69%

Cetinje 2+ goals

33%

Cetinje 3+ goals

12%

Berane 1+ goals

79%

Berane 2+ goals

46%

Berane 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cetinje (draw refunded)

38%

Berane (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cetinje at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Berane away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cetinje attack 0.89 + Berane defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Berane attack 0.98 + Cetinje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cetinje scores more

29%

level

25%

Berane scores more

46%

Berane at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff