Berane 1–0 Cetinje: Result & Stats | Second League

Berane

FT

1 – 0

Cetinje

8/15/2021

Second League · Round 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Berane60%

×Draw23%

Cetinje18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeraneExpected goals in this matchCetinje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.86

Berane

1.81

Cetinje

0.86

Berane creates 110% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 18 away

1.19

creates per match

0.56

1.17

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Berane

1.19

Cetinje

0.56

allows per match

Berane

1.17

Cetinje

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berane+0.00on par

Cetinje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berane ↓

Cetinje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Berane or draw

82%

Berane or Cetinje

77%

Draw or Cetinje

40%

Winning margin

Berane wins by 2+

34%

Cetinje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Berane 1+ goals

84%

Berane 2+ goals

54%

Berane 3+ goals

27%

Cetinje 1+ goals

58%

Cetinje 2+ goals

21%

Cetinje 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Berane (draw refunded)

77%

Cetinje (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 89 matches

Cetinje away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berane attack 1.19 + Cetinje defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Cetinje attack 0.56 + Berane defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Berane scores more

60%

level

23%

Cetinje scores more

18%

Berane at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Berane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff