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Cessnock City Hornets vs Belmont Swansea — NNSW League 1 2026

Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
FT
4 – 3
Belmont Swansea
Belmont Swansea
4/20/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 10Turner Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Cessnock City Hornets19%
×Draw19%
Belmont Swansea61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cessnock City Hornets
1.23
Belmont Swansea
2.31

Belmont Swansea creates 88% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.46
Belmont Swansea
2.92

allows per match

Cessnock City Hornets
1.71
Belmont Swansea
1.00

finishing

Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par
Belmont Swansea+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cessnock City Hornets ↓

Belmont Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Cessnock City Hornets or draw
39%
Cessnock City Hornets or Belmont Swansea
81%
Draw or Belmont Swansea
81%

Winning margin

Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
8%
Belmont Swansea wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
71%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
35%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
13%
Belmont Swansea 1+ goals
90%
Belmont Swansea 2+ goals
67%
Belmont Swansea 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
24%
Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cessnock City Hornets at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

Belmont Swansea away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.46 + Belmont Swansea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Belmont Swansea attack 2.92 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cessnock City Hornets scores more
19%
level
19%
Belmont Swansea scores more
61%

Belmont Swansea at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cessnock City Hornets vs Belmont Swansea

Cessnock City Hornets beat Belmont Swansea 4-3 in NNSW League 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Turner Park in Cessnock.