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Belmont Swansea vs Cessnock City Hornets — NNSW League 1 2026

Belmont Swansea
Belmont Swansea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cessnock City Hornets
Cessnock City Hornets
6/15/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 19Blacksmiths Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Belmont Swansea76%
×Draw13%
Cessnock City Hornets11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belmont Swansea
3.19
Cessnock City Hornets
1.16

Belmont Swansea creates 175% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 28 away

creates per match

Belmont Swansea
4.17
Cessnock City Hornets
1.39

allows per match

Belmont Swansea
0.92
Cessnock City Hornets
2.21

finishing

Belmont Swansea+0.00on par
Cessnock City Hornets+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belmont Swansea ↓

Cessnock City Hornets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Belmont Swansea or draw
89%
Belmont Swansea or Cessnock City Hornets
87%
Draw or Cessnock City Hornets
24%

Winning margin

Belmont Swansea wins by 2+
57%
Cessnock City Hornets wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Belmont Swansea 1+ goals
96%
Belmont Swansea 2+ goals
82%
Belmont Swansea 3+ goals
60%
Cessnock City Hornets 1+ goals
69%
Cessnock City Hornets 2+ goals
32%
Cessnock City Hornets 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Belmont Swansea (draw refunded)
88%
Cessnock City Hornets (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belmont Swansea at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Cessnock City Hornets away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belmont Swansea attack 4.17 + Cessnock City Hornets defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 3.19

Cessnock City Hornets attack 1.39 + Belmont Swansea defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Belmont Swansea scores more
76%
level
13%
Cessnock City Hornets scores more
11%

Belmont Swansea at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Belmont Swansea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Belmont Swansea vs Cessnock City Hornets

Belmont Swansea beat Cessnock City Hornets 2-0 in NNSW League 1 on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Blacksmiths Oval in Blacksmiths.