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České Budějovice vs Plzen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

České Budějovice
České Budějovice
FT
1 – 4
Plzen
Plzen
5/20/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

České Budějovice25%
×Draw21%
Plzen54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice
1.44
Plzen
2.19

Plzen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

České Budějovice
2.25
Plzen
2.38

allows per match

České Budějovice
2.00
Plzen
0.63

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw
46%
České Budějovice or Plzen
79%
Draw or Plzen
75%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+
11%
Plzen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals
76%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
42%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
18%
Plzen 1+ goals
89%
Plzen 2+ goals
64%
Plzen 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)
32%
Plzen (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Plzen away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 2.25 + Plzen defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Plzen attack 2.38 + České Budějovice defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

České Budějovice scores more
25%
level
21%
Plzen scores more
54%

Plzen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: České Budějovice 1–4 Plzen

Plzen beat České Budějovice 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on May 20, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.