České Budějovice 2–3 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats

České Budějovice

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Jablonec

R. Berberi 88'

V. Míka 67'

D. Hollý 73'

L. Jawo 48'

J. Chramosta 30' (pen)

2/15/2025

Czech Liga · Round 22Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

České Budějovice39%

×Draw26%

FK Jablonec35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České BudějoviceExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

České Budějovice

1.42

FK Jablonec

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 118 away

1.15

creates per match

1.11

1.56

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

České Budějovice

1.15

FK Jablonec

1.11

allows per match

České Budějovice

1.56

FK Jablonec

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par

FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw

65%

České Budějovice or FK Jablonec

74%

Draw or FK Jablonec

61%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+

18%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals

76%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

41%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

17%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

74%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

38%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

53%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.56 · 97 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.69 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.15 + FK Jablonec defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

FK Jablonec attack 1.11 + České Budějovice defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

České Budějovice scores more

39%

level

26%

FK Jablonec scores more

35%

České Budějovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

V. Míka

České Budějovice · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Jan ChramostaPenalty confirmed

29'

Richard Križan

30'

J. ChramostaPenalty

32'

37'

42'

42'

46'

R. Polanský← Q. Adediran

46'

D. Hollý← D. Štěpánek

48'

61'

67'

68'

68'

73'

77'

M. Ogiomade← U. Ekpai

81'

J. Suchan← M. Beran

81'

M. Krulich← J. Chramosta

83'

R. Berberi← V. Hora

88'

R. Berberi↳ V. Míka

90'

David Puskac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ČeskéFK

Overview

33%Possession67%

4Total Shots22

1Corners9

12Fouls8

Shots

4Total Shots22

2On Target7

0Off Target7

2Blocked8

2Inside Box18

2Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

270Total Passes509

191Accurate Passes445

71%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

2Red Cards0

0Offsides3