České Budějovice vs FK Jablonec — Czech Liga 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 97+ matches
České Budějovice39%
FK Jablonec35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 97 home / 118 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
České Budějovice ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
České Budějovice at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.56 · 97 matches
FK Jablonec away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.69 · 118 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
České Budějovice attack 1.15 + FK Jablonec defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42
FK Jablonec attack 1.11 + České Budějovice defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
České Budějovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Slavia Praha
Plzen
Sparta PrahaFK Jablonec
Slovan Liberec
Baník OstravaČeské Budějovice
Bohemians 1905
Slovácko
Mlada Boleslav
Sigma Olomouc
Teplice
Zlin
Karviná
Opava
PříbramIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shots
Statistics
České Budějovice host FK Jablonec on Saturday, 2 September 2023 at 13:00. The match is part of the Czech Liga 2019/2020 season.
Czech Liga: České Budějovice 2–1 FK Jablonec
České Budějovice beat FK Jablonec 2-1 in Czech Liga on September 2, 2023.
Goals: M. Kratochvíl (6'), J. Hora (20' pen), W. Alli (56').
The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Ceské Budejovice.