České Budějovice 3–0 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

České Budějovice

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bohemians 1905

8/20/2023

Czech Liga · Round 5Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

České Budějovice40%

×Draw26%

Bohemians 190535%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

České BudějoviceExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

České Budějovice

1.42

Bohemians 1905

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 120 away

1.20

creates per match

1.08

1.53

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

České Budějovice

1.20

Bohemians 1905

1.08

allows per match

České Budějovice

1.53

Bohemians 1905

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

České Budějovice+0.00on par

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

České Budějovice or draw

65%

České Budějovice or Bohemians 1905

74%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

60%

Winning margin

České Budějovice wins by 2+

19%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

České Budějovice 1+ goals

76%

České Budějovice 2+ goals

41%

České Budějovice 3+ goals

17%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

73%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

38%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice (draw refunded)

53%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 100 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.63 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice attack 1.20 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.08 + České Budějovice defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

České Budějovice scores more

40%

level

26%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

35%

České Budějovice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "České Budějovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff