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Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice — Czech Liga 2019

Bohemians 1905
Bohemians 1905
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
České Budějovice
České Budějovice
2/9/2025Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 21Stadion Ďolíček

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bohemians 190552%
×Draw24%
České Budějovice24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians 1905
1.69
České Budějovice
1.07

Bohemians 1905 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 102 away

creates per match

Bohemians 1905
1.30
České Budějovice
0.98

allows per match

Bohemians 1905
1.17
České Budějovice
2.07

finishing

Bohemians 1905+0.00on par
České Budějovice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians 1905 ↓

České Budějovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bohemians 1905 or draw
76%
Bohemians 1905 or České Budějovice
76%
Draw or České Budějovice
48%

Winning margin

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+
28%
České Budějovice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals
82%
Bohemians 1905 2+ goals
50%
Bohemians 1905 3+ goals
24%
České Budějovice 1+ goals
66%
České Budějovice 2+ goals
29%
České Budějovice 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)
68%
České Budějovice (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians 1905 at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

České Budějovice away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.07 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.30 + České Budějovice defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

České Budějovice attack 0.98 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bohemians 1905 scores more
52%
level
24%
České Budějovice scores more
24%

Bohemians 1905 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bohemians 1905 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bohemians 1905 vs České Budějovice

Bohemians 1905 beat České Budějovice 1-0 in Czech Liga on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Ďolíček in Praha.